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State of the Race: Arizona's Republican Primary Race for U.S. Senate - March 2022



Alloy Analytics recently completed a poll on the state of Arizona's Republican Primary race for U.S. Senate showing the race statistically tied between 3 candidates, though 45% of voters remain undecided. Full toplines and crosstabs are attached at the bottom of the page. Interviews were conducted March 9th-12th, 2022.


Attorney General Mark Brnovich narrowly leads the 5-man Primary with 20% of respondents selecting him as their pick.


Blake Masters, the venture capitalist, author, and protégé of billionaire Pether Thiel polled at 15%. Masters is tied with Jim Lamon, an entrepreneur who recently sold his solar power company DEPCOM Power to Koch Industries for $1B, who 15% of respondents selected as their Primary choice.


With the poll's 4.7% margin of error, the race is statistically tied between Brnovich, Masters, and Lamon. 45% of voters are still undecided however, showing that the race to be the Republican that gets to run against Mark Kelly for Arizona's open U.S. Senate seat is wide open.


To further illustrate how in flux the race still is, 79% of those who selected a candidate said they could change their mind as they hear more about the candidates in the field. Mark Brnovich has the highest number of solid voters at 30%, likely benefiting from his high name ID from his tenure as Arizona's Attorney General.


Poll Details

This poll of 433 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted using a mix of voter file matched online panels and SMS text-to-web surveys. The sample was weighted based on 2020 Presidential election vote, education, age, race, party, DMA, and primary voter history. Weighting targets were derived from a statewide voter file, appended with consumer data and the 2020 Presidential Election to accurately reflect the demographics of likely midterm Republican Primary turnout. Interviews were collected March 9th-12th, 2022.


Download the crosstabs and toplines:

GOV AND SENATE PRIMARY TOPLINES
.pdf
Download PDF • 444KB




GOV AND SENATE PRIMARY CROSSTABS
.pdf
Download PDF • 150KB