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Kari Lake Leads Primary Going into Election Day

Alloy Analytics has recently completed a statewide poll in Arizona of 600 likely GOP primary voters that shows Kari Lake with a 10% lead over Karrin Taylor Robson.

Kari Lake has robust support across the electorate and is going into Election Day with a double digit lead.

The moving average of all publicly available polls suggest that this is not a close race. Despite being outspent by ~5x, there has never been a point in the race where Lake was behind. According to this moving average, Kari Lake is going into Election Day with an 11% lead.

We asked respondents if they primarily supported Donald Trump or the Republican Party. Among voters that said Donald Trump, Kari Lake holds a 44% lead. Robson’s support is among respondents saying they primarily support the Republican Party- a group Robson has a 13% lead with.

Kari Lake has a massive advantage over Karrin Taylor Robson among infrequent primary voters. Lake’s lead narrows as primary participation increases with Robson actually narrowly leading by 5% among voters who have participated in 4 of the last 4 primaries

Karrin Taylor Robson’s support lies largely with voters over 66 years old, where she leads Kari Lake by 11%. Across all other age categories, 18-65, Kari Lake has a significant lead.


This survey of 600 likely GOP Primary voters was conducted statewide in Arizona from 7/24 to 7/26. Responses were collected 50% from live call surveys and 50% SMS Text-To-Web. The Live call surveys were 66% to landlines and 34% to cells. This survey has a margin of error of 4% with a 95% confidence interval.

Survey respondents were weighted based on 2020 Presidential election vote, education, age, race, county, and party. Weighting targets were derived from a statewide voter file, appended with consumer data and the 2020 Presidential Election to accurately reflect the demographics of likely midterm Republican Primary turnout.


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