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GOP Primary Ballot Behavior & Endorsement Effect



Methodology

Alloy Analytics has just completed a statewide Arizona survey of 680 likely Republican Primary voters, examining how they are voting and planning to vote. This survey was a blended phone survey combing live call surveys and SMS text to web conducted 7/24/2022 - 7/26/2022. The blend was 45% live calls (66% landline, 33% cell) and 55% SMS text-to-web.


Respondents answered different questions based on whether they answered that they had "Already voted" or whether they are "definitely voting".


51% (n = 347) of the respondents answered that they had "already voted" and 49% (n = 333) said they are "definitely voting".


Endorsement & Rally Effects

We found that 50% of voters said that a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, or net 35% more likely while only 23% said the same about a Mike Pence endorsement, or net 6% less likely.



We also asked respondents if they saw coverage of the July 22nd Trump rally in Prescott Valley. 46% said they had. Despite Trump's calls to cast votes by mail that night, only 5% said it made them more likely to vote by mail and 26% said it made them less likely.


When asked if the rally made respondents more or less likely to vote for Kari Lake, 33% said that it made them more likely to vote for her while 12% said it made them less likely. 54% said it made no difference as a large amount of these respondents have already decided they are voting for Kari Lake.



Ballot Behavior

51% of respondents have already voted, with 82% of this group stating they voted early by mail and 12% filled out a mail / early ballot and brought it to a voting center.



The 49% of respondents who have not yet voted said they are "definitely voting" with 51% (MoE 5.3%) of that group saying they plan on voting in person on election day and 26% saying they plan on voting by mail. This poll was fielded 7/24-7/26, and 7/26 was the last day the county recommended mailing ballots by...



When asked why they haven't voted yet, 54% said they do not trust that their ballot will be counted properly by mail. 21% said there are races they are still undecided on.




Toplines

Ballot Behavior Topline
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Crosstabs

Ballot Behavior Crosstab
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